GOLD, SILVER, COPPER, CRUDE: Commodity Technical Outlook

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00P.M	Unemployment Claims	292K.2	331K	STRONG
7.30P.M	Existing Home Sales	5.39M	5.27M	STRONG
7.30P.M	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	9.3	10.2	STRONG
8.00P.M	Natural Gas Storage	65B	60B	LOW

SILVER

Silver moved lower overnight, opening at 21.62/21.67. It followed gold to a brief low of 21.19/21.24 before rising to a high of 21.65/21.70 just prior to concluding the session at 21.55/21.60. Silver also surged post FOMC today.

Silver is also trading higher at 23.15 after a close at 21.60. Support is at today’s pre-FOMC low at 21.19. Similar to gold, we would like to see a strong weekly close as recent trading action has been very weak.

The gold-silver ratio traded lower today, currently at 58.82. The ratio has been in a wide sideways consolidation with support at 56.83, which is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Resistance is at 67.60, which is where the ratio broke down through the uptrend that was in place until early August.

Silver settled up ahead of Federal Reserve’s decision on buying bonds getting support from firm base metals and crude prices.

Fed cut its forecast for 2013 economic growth to a 2.0% to 2.3% range from a June estimate of 2.3% to 2.6%.

A White House official said Janet Yellen was front-runner for the top job at the U.S. central bank when Bernanke steps down.
Technical Levels
Support-1: 20.83
Support-2: 20.15

Resistance-1: 23.63
Resistance-2: 24.31

GOLD

Gold moved lower overnight to open at 1302.75/1303.75 amid expectations that the Fed would taper its stimulus measures. After touching a low 1296.00/1297.00 the metal improved, eventually trading to a high of 1312.50/1313.50 prior to concluding the session at 1307.25/1308.25. The metal surged later in the afternoon after Federal Reserve policy makers kept their asset purchases unchanged.

Gold closed at 1308 but traded higher after the FOMC announcement and is currently at 1357. Support is at today’s low of 1296. Resistance is at the recent high at 1433. Given the bearish price action of the past few weeks, we would like to see a strong weekly close as confirmation that the uptrend (since the June 28 low) has resumed.

COMEX Gold surged more than 4 percent to above $1,360 an ounce after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s unexpected decision to continue buying bonds unleashed bullion’s biggest one-day buying spree since June 2012. The move by the U.S. central bank to continue its $85 billion monthly buying pace due to worries about rising borrowing costs surprised financial markets that were broadly braced for a reduction in the central bank’s monetary stimulus.
Technical Levels
Support-1: 1270
Support-2: 1233
Resistance-1: 1403
Resistance-2: 1440

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New YorkMercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.324 a pound during European morning trade, Trading range of copper today between 3.3440 to 3.280.

overnight LME Copper rallied almost 3 percent to two-week highs as the dollar sank after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s surprise decision to delay reining in its $85 billion monthly stimulus program. In the biggest one-day gain in over a month, prices in New York jumped after the Fed said it would wait for evidence of a more stable economy before adjusting the pace of its purchases. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.31% to settled at 17119 while prices up 11.7 rupee.
The Fed’s stimulus program is viewed by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar. In U.S. economic news out Wednesday, the Commerce Department said single-family housing starts jumped 7% last month to an annual rate of 628,000 units, the highest level in six months. New construction for apartments and condominiums fell 11.1%. Permits for single-family homes rose 3% to the highest level since May 2008.

Technical Levels
Support-1: 3.2285
Support-2: 3.1785
Resistance-1: 3.2300
Resistance-2: 3.3765

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for November delivery jumped 0.41% to USD107.72 per barrel in Asian trading Thursday. The November contract settled higher by 2.35% at USD107.28 per barrel on Wednesday.

The Energy Information Administration reported earlier that U.S. crude oil stockpiles dropped by 4.37 million barrels in the week ending Sept. 13, well beyond expectations for a decline of 1.39 million barrels and far past a decline of 219,000 barrels in the previous week.
In U.S. economic news out Wednesday, the Commerce Department said single-family housing starts jumped 7% last month to an annual rate of 628,000 units, the highest level in six months. New construction for apartments and condominiums fell 11.1%. Permits for single-family homes rose 3% to the highest level since May 2008.

Technical Levels
Support-1: 106.09
Support-2: 104.10
Resistance-1: 109.26
Resistance-2: 110.46

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Sep 26, 2013
FF Notes	This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

Existing Home Sales

Source	National Association of Realtors (latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 20 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Oct 21, 2013
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). Existing homes make up the majority of total sales and therefore tend to have more impact than New Home Sales;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called	Home Resales;
Source	National Association of Realtors (latest release)

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Source	Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Oct 17, 2013
FF Notes	Above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment;
Derived Via	Survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district which asks respondents to rate the relative level of general business conditions;
Also Called	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey;