OVERNIGHT COMMODITY Technical Outlook

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1272	1253	1295	1305
SILVER	20.63	20.43	20.92	21.24
COPPER	3.1510	3.1280	3.1830	3.2190
CRUDE	93.65	92.84	94.51	95.36

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

 SILVER

Silver followed gold higher overnight to open at 20.73/20.78. It touched a low of 20.62/20.67 and then quickly moved up to a high of 20.85/20.90 prior to concluding the session at 20.71/20.76.

Silver also showed some signs of stabilizing after declining in 8 of the past 11 sessions, from 23.09 high to 20.44 low. Today’s close was 20.76, and comes after yesterday’s test of the previous 20.49 low from October 15th. Yesterday’s low of 20.44 now becomes support, with resistance at 21.45, which is 38.2% retracement of this recent downtrend. The risk is still to the downside, to test the previous low at 19.16.

Silver prices rallied off the previous session’s three-month low on Thursday, as investors cheered stimulus-supportive remarks from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen.

Futures were likely to find support at USD20.41 a troy ounce, the low from November 13 and resistance at USD21.33, the high from November 12.
Expectations that the Fed would keep its stimulus in place for longer mounted following dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Janet Yellen.

GOLD

Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1283.00/1284.00. It briefly touched a low of 1281.25/1282.25 before surging to a high of 1294.00/1295.00 following marginally higher than expected U.S. initial jobless claims and signals from Fed Chairman nominee Janet Yellen that monetary stimulus is likely to continue. The metal closed the session at 1286.50/1287.50.

Gold closed higher today at 1286, stabilizing the decline that has seen gold travel from 1361 to 1261 in 9 sessions. On the daily chart, there is still a weak uptrend in gold in place since the June 28th low, with uptrend support coming in at 1272. However, the bearish trend that has been in place since the August high at 1433 still has greater momentum. The last signal in MACD is still a sell, and positive directional movement (+DMI) is only at 13, versus negative directional movement (-DMI) at 26. This leaves the risk to the downside, for a retracement back to the 1251 low from October. A breach of 1251 would open up a retracement to the 1180 low from June. Current resistance is at 1300, which is both a psychological level as well as the 38.2% retracement of the October downtrend.

Gold prices eased slightly in Asia on Friday, with investors taking gains from an overnight jump on expectations of continued easy monetary policy in the United States.

Overnight, gold prices hit a session low of USD1,273.30 a troy ounce and high of USD1,293.60 a troy ounce after Federal Reserve Chair Nominee Janet Yellen said that monetary stimulus tools should stay in place as needed to ensure a more robust recovery.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New YorkMercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.159 a pound during European morning trade, little changed.

Comex copper prices traded in a range between USD3.154 a pound, the daily low and a session high of USD3.183 a pound.
The December contract tumbled to USD3.152 a pound on Wednesday, the lowest since August 7, before settling 2.3% lower at USD3.159 a pound.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.129 a pound, the low from August 7 and resistance at USD3.222 a pound, the high from November 13.

Copper futures traded at a three-month low on Thursday, ahead of the confirmation hearing for Federal Reserve chair nominee Janet Yellen.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December traded at USD94.04, up 0.29%, in a range of 93.83 - 94.09.
The commodity hit a session low of USD92.53 and a high of USD94.42. 

The December contract settled up 0.90% at USD93.88 a barrel on Wednesday.
Elsewhere, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported earlier that crude oil inventories last week rose by 2.6 million barrels, far more than the 994,000 barrels predicted by analysts.

Crude oil prices held onto overnight gains in early Asia trade on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Nominee Janet Yellen told lawmakers that monetary stimulus tools shouldn't be removed too soon in order to ensure recovery doesn't falter.

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.00 P.M	Empire State Manufacturing Index	1.5	5.2	MEDIUM
7.00 P.M	Import Prices m/m	0.2%	-0.4%	MEDIUM
7.45 P.M	Capacity Utilization Rate	78.3%	78.3%	MEDIUM
7.45 P.M	Industrial Production m/m	0.6%	0.1%	MEDIUM

Empire State Manufacturing Index

Source	Federal Reserve Bank of New York (latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in New York state;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Dec 16, 2013
FF Notes	Above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment;
Derived Via	Survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state which asks respondents to rate the relative level of general business conditions;
Also Called	New York Manufacturing Index;

Import Prices m/m

FF Alert	Release date delayed by 2 days due to the US government shutdown;
Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 13 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Dec 12, 2013
FF Notes	This is the earliest government-released inflation data;
Why Traders Care	It contributes to inflation for businesses and consumers, especially those who rely heavily on imported goods and services;

Capacity Utilization Rate

Source	Federal Reserve (latest release)
Measures	Percentage of available resources being utilized by manufacturers, mines, and utilities;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Dec 16, 2013
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when producers are nearing full capacity they respond by raising prices, and the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer;
Source	Federal Reserve (latest release)
Measures	Percentage of available resources being utilized by manufacturers, mines, and utilities;

Industrial Production m/m

Source	Federal Reserve (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Dec 16, 2013
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings;
Also Called	Factory Output;
Source	Federal Reserve (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities;