GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE: Commodity Technical Outlook Today

SILVER

Silver moved lower overnight to open at 19.70/19.75, which was also the high of the day. It then followed gold to a low of 19.25/19.30 prior to concluding the session at 19.28/19.33.

Silver had a very bad day today, closing down sharply at 19.28, taking out support in the 19.59 area (previous low). There is very little price support between here and 18.23, the low from June 2013. RSI is currently at 29, with support at the previous low of 22.42, so we can see silver sell off further before getting ‘oversold’. Resistance is at today’s high of 19.75. 

The gold-silver ratio traded higher, currently at 63.60, taking out resistance in the 63.51 area. This was the 61.8% retracement of the July-August range. We see little resistance from here until the 67.47 level, a full retracement. Support is at 62.28, the 50% Fibonacci level.

Silver plunge after stronger-than-expected U.S. manufacturing activity data reinforced expectations for an eventual reduction in Fed’s monetary stimulus.

ISM said its index of purchasing managers rose to a 31-month high of 57.3 in November from a reading of 56.4 in October.

U.S. manufacturing activity rose to a 10-month high of 54.7 in November, up from a preliminary reading of 54.3

GOLD

Gold moved lower overnight to open at 1236.25/1237.25. It briefly touched a high of 1238.25/1239.25 before retreating to a low of 1221.50/1222.50 while the dollar strengthened following strong U.S. manufacturing data prompting short selling from investors and speculators. Thereafter, the metal traded within range to close at 1222.50/1223.50.

Gold suffered a steep drop today, closing at 1222, below our support level at the major low of 1225. Now that we have broken through the bottom of the recent trading range, we can expect some acceleration to the downside. RSI is at 30, with no major support until 19.74 (previous major low), so we can see further downside before reaching ‘oversold’ levels. There is no major price support until the next low of 1180 from June 2013. Resistance is at today’s high of 1239.

Gold dropped as better-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data prompted funds and speculators to increase bearish bets on bullion.

Bullion’s losses widened after data showed the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded last month at its fastest pace in 2-1/2 years

Data this week including nonfarm payrolls, third-quarter GDP and manufacturing PMI may provide more insight into the strength of the world’s biggest economy.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New YorkMercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.193 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.4%.
Comexcopper prices traded in a range between USD3.188 a pound, the daily low and a session high of USD3.215 a pound.
The March contract settled 0.45% higher on Friday to end at USD3.205 a pound.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.180 a pound, the low from November 27 and resistance at USD3.225 a pound, the high from November 29..

Copper futures edged lower on Monday, as investors digesting a mixed round of manufacturing data from the euro zone and China.

China and the euro zone are major global copper consumers and manufacturing numbers are often used as indicators for future copper demand growth.

Copper dropped as upbeat U.S. economic data spurred renewed fears about the Federal Reserve trimming monetary stimulus and the dollar strengthened.

In the euro zone, data showed that the bloc’s manufacturing PMI rose to a two year high of 51.6 last month from October’s 51.3

Mine output of copper has grown by around 944,000 tonnes year-to-date, almost twice the pace of primary refined output.

CRUDE

On the New York MercantileExchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in January traded at USD 94.17 a barrel, up 0.37%,
The Institute for Supply Management reported that U.S. manufacturing activity in November expanded at its fastest pace since April 2011, fueling optimism for more robust economic recovery down the road.
The ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 57.3 in November from 56.4 in October. Analysts were expecting the index to fall to 55.0.

Oil prices in Asia held onto overnight gains Tuesday built on data that showed industrial activity in the U.S. and China, the world's largest consumers of crude, beat expectations and painted a picture of a global economy poised to demand more fuel and energy going forward.

Crude oil rose after strong manufacturing data from China and the United States, the world’s two biggest oil consumers.Oil prices found some extra support from evidence that the OPEC pumped less oil in November, mainly due to decreased production in Libya.Ongoing unrest in Libya pulled exports down to around 130,000 bpd, Deputy Oil Minister told more than 1.2 mbpd below pre-revolution supply levels.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1209	1196	1243	1264
SILVER	18.89	18.55	19.74	20.25
COPPER	3.2000	3.1825	3.2385	3.2595
CRUDE	92.89	91.37	94.41	95.00

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

Global Economic Data

DATE	TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
03.12.13	8.30P.M	IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism	41.4	43.2	LOW
03.12.13	ALL DAY	Total Vehicle Sales	15.2M	15.8M	LOW

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

Source	TIPP (latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Jan 7, 2014
FF Notes	Above 50.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism;
Derived Via	Survey of about 900 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of economic conditions including six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, and confidence in federal economic policies;

Total Vehicle Sales

Source	Autodata Corp. (latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of cars and trucks sold domestically during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 2 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Jan 2, 2014
FF Notes	Listed as an 'All Day' event because the 'Actual' is comprised of data from major auto manufacturers which report their sales figures throughout the afternoon. While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why Traders Care	It's a sign of consumer confidence - rising demand for expensive durable goods shows that consumers are confident in their future financial position and feel comfortable spending money;
Also Called	Total SAAR;
Source	Autodata Corp. (latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of cars and trucks sold domestically during the previous month;