COMEX Daily Technical Analysis Outlook

GOLD 

Gold advanced overnight to open at 1285.50/1286.50. It fell to a  low of 1275.75/1276.75 following comments by the Fed Chairman,  Janet Yellen that suggested continuation of measured tapering of  the Fed’s monthly bond purchase program. The metal rebounded  to a three-month high of 1294.00/1295.00 tracking gains in  equities. Thereafter, the metal traded within range to close at  1289.00/1290.00.

Gold traded higher at 1290, through 1278/79 resistance (38.2% of  last downtrend and previous 2014 high). Also RSI broke higher  through resistance in 62 area, now at 66.35. This shifts our view  from neutral to bullish. The next target is 1308/09 which is 50%  retracement of last downtrend and the 200 DMA. Support is at the  previous resistance of 1278, then at the low from the doji on Jan  31, at 1238.
Gold rose after Fed’s Yellen made it clear she would not make any abrupt changes to the central bank’s commitment to a measured tapering of bond purchases.
A string of disappointing U.S. data had prompted speculation that the Fed might hold off further reduction of stimulus.
SPDR gold trust holding gained by 1.80 tonnes i.e. 0.23% to 798.85 tonnes from 797.05 tonnes.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1278	1260	1296	1303

Commodity Contract - S2 S1 R1 R2

 SILVER 

Silver moved marginally higher to open at 20.15/20.20. It dipped  to a low of 19.93/19.98 before following gold to a high of  20.28/20.33. It then retreated to opening levels to close at  20.14/20.19.
Silver closed higher today at 20.19, but has not yet breached  resistance beyond the 2014 high of 20.64. RSI is testing resistance,  currently at 57.82. We are waiting for a breach of the range to  shift our view from neutral.
The gold-silver ratio is trading higher today at 63.80. It has strong  support from the uptrend, currently at 61.79. Resistance is at the  most recent high, the 2014 high of 65.37

Silver prices pared gains after Janet Yellen said that central bank was likely to continue tapering its monthly bond-buying program
Yellen said that central bank would taper the pace of its asset purchases at future meetings if the economy continued to improve as expected.
Holdings at ishares silver trust gained by 0.45% i.e. 44.89 tonnes to 10090.68 tonnes from 10045.79 tonnes.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
SILVER	19.94	19.74	20.32	20.50

Commodity Contract - S2 S1 R1 R2

 COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery fell to a session low of USD3.202 a pound, the weakest since February 6.
Copper prices last traded at USD3.213 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.35%. The March copper contract ended Monday’s session down 0.36% to settle at USD3.224 a pound.
Futures were likely to find support at USD3.191 a pound, the low from February 6 and resistance at USD3.253 a pound, the high from February 10.
Ms. Yellen was to testify on monetary policy and the outlook for the economy before the House Financial Services Committee later Tuesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.

The Fed chair was expected to reiterate that the bank will continue to unwind its stimulus program as long as the economic recovery continues as expected, and to repeat that the bank will keep interest rates at current record lows for some time to come.
The testimony is coming amid fresh concerns over the outlook for the recovery, following the weakest two-month stretch of U.S. job creation in three years in December and January.
Copper futures fell to a three-day low on Tuesday, ahead of Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s first testimony on monetary policy to Congress later in the day.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
COPPER	3.2006	3.1863	3.2311	3.2473

Commodity Contract - S2 S1 R1 R2

 CRUDE

On Tuesday the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD99.92 a barrel, a high of USD100.57 a barrel and finally closing at USD99.93 a barrel.
Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD99.11 a barrel, Monday's low, and resistance at USD100.53 a barrel, Monday's high.
In prepared remarks to the House Financial Services Committee, Fed Chair Yellen suggested that the central bank will continue tapering the pace of its asset purchases at future meetings if the economy continued to improve as expected.
“Let me emphasize that I expect a great deal of continuity in the Federal Open Market Committee’s approach to monetary policy,” she said.
Yellen added that the pace of the central bank’s bond purchases are not on a “preset course” and Comexreiterated that the Fed plans to hold interest rates near zero “well past” the time the jobless rate falls below 6.5%.

The Fed is currently purchasing USD65 billion in Treasury holdings and mortgage debt a month to suppress interest rates to spur recovery, which weakens the dollar as a side effect, though talk of less Fed intervention has the opposite effect on the U.S. currency.
Nymex crude oil prices rose during Asian trading hours on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen suggested monetary authorities remain on course to continue tapering monthly bond purchases as the economy improves.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded at USD100.42 a barrel during Asian trading, up 0.49%.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
CRUDE	99.49	98.49	100.50	101.50

Commodity Contract - S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

DATE	TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
12.01.14	9.00P.M	Crude Oil Inventories	0.4M	2.5M	MEDIUM
12.01.14	11.31P.M	10-y Bond Auction	3.01	2.7	MEDIUM

Crude Oil Inventories

Source	Energy Information Administration (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week;
Usual Effect	No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Frequency	Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Feb 20, 2014
FF Notes	While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector;
Why Traders Care	It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods;
Also Called	Crude Stocks, Crude Levels;
Acro Expand	Energy Information Administration (EIA);

10-y Bond Auction

Source	Treasury Direct (latest release)
Measures	Highest yield on 10-year bonds the government sold at auction, and the bid-to-cover ratio of the auction;
Usual Effect	No consistent effect - there are both risk and growth implications;
Frequency	Conducted monthly;
Next Release	Mar 12, 2014
FF Notes	Auction results are reported in an 'X.XX|X.X' format - the first number is the highest interest rate of the bonds sold, and the second number is the bid-to-cover ratio (number of bids made per bid accepted);
Why Traders Care	Yields are set by bond market investors, and therefore they can be used to decipher investors' outlook on future interest rates. The bid-to-cover ratio represents bond market liquidity and demand, which can be used to gauge investor confidence;