COMEX Trading Technical Analysis View

GOLD

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust fell 3.3 tonnes to 776.89 tonnes on Wednesday, the lowest since December 2008. The outflow was the biggest since April 30. Though Gold prices in the international markets gained Yesterday as the minutes from the Federal Reserve suggested that central bank would note raised interest rates soon.
Forecast
Gold price are expected to trade in the consolidate range.
SILVER

ETF Holdings of New York’s iShares Silver Trust SLV, fell by 35.86 tonnes stood at 10,284.40 tonnes from previous business day.
Spot silver prices rose by 0.4% in yesterday’s trade diverging from the gains in gold prices. A sharp upside was capped on account of strength in the DX.

Forecast
Silver prices are expected to trade consolidate in a range.
CRUDE
NYMEX CRUDE ended lower yesterday on profit booking after the rally a day before by ongoing violence in Libya and positive economic data in China and the United States. Prices fell after the release of the weekly Jobs numbers from the US which increased to 326,000, higher than markets estimates of 310,000. Along with this some selling pressure was also seen in the market. WTI crude fell 0.3% to 103.75 barrel as data came from US on housing and jobs too came weaker than expected. ICE Brent also pulled back some gains close to $110.40 barrel.

Overall though broad bullishness remains in the US crude which took strong upward momentum out of the better stocks data recently. As also reported earlier, DoE said crude stockpiles fell 7.2 million barrels to 391.3 million for the week ended May 16.
Overall a broad bullishness is seen in the US crude which took strong upward momentum. According to the DOE crude stockpiles fell 7.2 M barrels to 391.3 M for the week ended May 16.
There are some positive signs for demand in gasoline consumption as the demand in market over the past four weeks increased to 8.94 MBPD, its highest level since November and up 5.3% on a YoY comparison. So refiners churn more oil for producing gasoline.

Forecast
Crude oil prices could trade sideways.
TODAY’S DAY RANGE

COMMODITY	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1290	1280	1298	1310
SILVER	19.00	18.50	20.00	20.50
CRUDE	103	102.50	104	104.50

DAY’S HIGHLIGHT

• US Unemployment Claims rose to 326,000 for w/e on 16th Apr’14.
• Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.5-mark in current month.
• SPDR Gold holdings fell 3.3 tonnes to 776.89 tonnes on Wednesday.
• UK’s Second Estimate GDP unchanged at 0.8 percent in Q1 of 2014.

Data Update for 23th May 2014

Time	Currency	Particular	Actual	Forecast	Previous
7:30am	CNY	CB Leading Index m/m	0.90%		1.10%
11:30am	EUR	German Final GDP q/q		0.80%	0.80%
1:30pm	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate		111	111.2
	EUR	Italian Retail Sales m/m		0.30%	-0.20%
Day 2	EUR	European Parliamentary Elections
6:00pm	CAD	Core CPI m/m		0.20%	0.30%
	CAD	CPI m/m		0.30%	0.60%
6:30pm	EUR	Belgian NBB Business Climate		-4.7	-4.6
7:30pm	USD	New Home Sales		426K	384K